Fed: Strong year forecast for oil and gas exports

AAP General News (Australia)
12-13-2004
Fed: Strong year forecast for oil and gas exports

CANBERRA, Dec 13 AAP - Australia's oil producers should enjoy a bumper financial year,
with export earnings forecast to increase 34 per cent on the back of high world prices,
a new report shows.

The nation's chief commodities forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and
Resource Economics (ABARE), predicted oil and condensate exports in the current financial
year would rake in $6.8 billion in export earnings.

ABARE's December quarter forecasts, released today, show gas will be a strong earner
in 2004-05, with the value of exports expected to increase by 47 per cent on the previous
year to $3.2 billion.

The rise would be driven by the completion of the fourth liquefied natural gas production
train at the giant North West Shelf project in Western Australia's Pilbara region, the
report said.

Export earnings for coal are forecast to increase by 48 per cent to $16.1 billion.

The bureau also forecast a gradual fall in the price of oil.

"Increased global production capacity and the continued rebuilding of OECD stocks should
place downward pressure on prices, allowing gradual easing of world oil prices in 2005,"

the report said.

ABARE provides several scenarios in its oil price forecasts, with the price depending
on factors including the security situation in the Middle East and reduced economic activity
in China.

The price of oil could be anywhere between $US35 and $US44 per barrel in 2005, ABARE said.

Oil prices peaked at more than $US56 per barrel in September this year.

AAP rp/sb/it/jlw

KEYWORD: ABARE ENERGY

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